Time Trend of the Suicide Incidence in India; a Statistical Modelling

Brijesh Sathian^1, , Asis De¹, Edwin van Teijlingen², Padam Simkhada³, Indrajit Banerjee⁴, Bedanta Roy⁵, HS Supram⁶, Suresh Devkota¹ and Rajesh E⁷

¹Department of Community Medicine, Manipal College of Medical Sciences, Pokhara, Nepal

²Centre for Midwifery, Maternal & Perinatal Health, Bournemouth University, Bournemouth, UK

³International Public Health, Liverpool John Moores University, UK

⁴Department of Pharmacology, SSR Medical College, Belle Rive, Mauritius

⁵Department of Physiology, Manipal College of Medical Sciences, Pokhara, Nepal

⁶Department of Microbiology, Manipal College of Medical Sciences, Pokhara, Nepal

⁷School of Behavioural Sciences, Mahatma Ghandi University, Kottayam, Kerala

Cite this paper

Brijesh Sathian, Asis De, Edwin van Teijlingen, Padam Simkhada, Indrajit Banerjee, Bedanta Roy, HS Supram, Suresh Devkota and Rajesh E. Time Trend of the Suicide Incidence in India; a Statistical Modelling. American Journal of Public Health Research. 2015; 3(5A):80-87. doi: 10.12691/AJPHR-3-5A-17

Abstract

Background: It is estimated that over 100,000 people die by suicide in India every year. India alone contributes to more than 10% of suicides in the world. The suicide rate in India has been increasing steadily and has reached 11.2 (per 100,000 of population) in 2011 registering 78% increase over the value of 1980 (6.3). Objective: Objective of the study was to forecasts the suicide incidence of India up to 2020. Material and Methods: Theoretical statistics was used for the statistical modelling of the retrospective data of suicide incidence data of 1989-2011 years collected from National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB). Results: Using curve fitting method, Linear, Logarithmic, Inverse, Quadratic, Cubic, Compound, Power and Exponential growth models were validated. Cubic Model was the best fitted model with R²>0.90, p<0.01. Suicide incidence of India has an increasing trend. In 2020, it is estimated that the suicide incidence of India will be 109814 with CI [ 86593, 133034] for male, 76224 with CI [55151, 97297] for female and 186038 with CI [145605, 226471] for total[both male and female]. Conclusion: Suicide incidence of India has an increasing trend. India requires the involvement of all governments and other organizations to contribute to the cause of suicide awareness and prevention through activities, events, conferences and campaigns to solve this public health problem.

Keywords

suicide, incidence, forecasting, statistical modelling, India

Copyright

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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